Do My Blood Test And Fertility Reports Indicate My Ability To Conceive?

Question: I really hope you can help me. Let me start from the beginning I am 39 years of age, never used any kind of contraception and have never been pregnant. I was never sexually active until I was 26 years of age and then it would only be maybe 3 times a year. We have been more sexually active the past 6 months about twice a week. I have only ever had one partner and that is my current husband. 
I got married in July 2012 and we decided we wanted to try for a baby. We have never been consistent with intercourse. 
I really want to conceive naturally, do you really see this can happen for us? I am overweight. My husband has 20 cigarettes a day and drinks within the alcoholic guidelines (lager or bitter). My husband has now stopped smoking and cut down alcohol. 
I have been to see fertility specialist. I have had vaginal swabs and an internal examination today. (Everything has come back normal). Ultrasound scan is also normal. Blood results are as follows: Estrogen 115, LH 1.7, FSH 7.1 
Husband semen analysis is also good. With a 5% morphology which specialist says has to be above 4%
My bmi is 45 and she wants it down to 30 before commencing any type of treatment which she said will probably be tablets to make me ovulate. I have currently lost 8lb. 
I am worried if I don't lose weight I will never get pregnant. Clearblue fertility monitor in the past has shown ovulation and some months no ovulation do you think I could keep try to use this. 
If I lose weight can I reverse things naturally and start to ovulate? 
I usually have a regular bleeding pattern 24-28 day cycles. Never have pain or any kind of problem. But my bleeding cycle this year has been very erratic and I am worried sick why. Bleeding pattern this year has been: 
SEPTEMBER 2015 
4th September – 8th September (5 days bleeding) 
Cycle 11th August – 3rd September = 24 days 
SEPTEMBER 2015 
30th September – 4th October (5 days bleeding) 
Cycle 4th September – 29th September = 26 days 
1. Are my bloods normal? 
2. Do you agree the fertility monitor is a good diagnosis for ovulating? 
3. Do you see I can conceive naturally? 
4. Any suggestions please to help me achieve what I really want. 
5. Am I stressing out too much? 
6. HSG was requested but I can’t have due to anaphylaxis to Iodine, is there any other way of telling if my tubes are blocked please? 
7. Do I need my tubes checked? Fertility Specialist says I dont 
If Clearblue fertility monitor shows 3 bars do I: 
1. Ovulate 
2. Release an egg 
3. Should I conceive naturally 
Another thing that confuses me is Fertility Monitor shows Ovulation, but Ovulation strips do not. I think I am getting myself into a Frenzy and should just use the Fertility Monitor and forget ovulation test strips. What are your thoughts please? 
All Day 21 Progesterone blood tests come back less than 1. Will I ever conceive or is this because my cycle is 24-26 days? I am worried and crying that I will never be a Mum. My Fertility Specialist is not worried and just stays I need to lose weight. Please help. Do I need to worry about my Day 21? 
My Fertility Specialist says I am not conceiving as I need to have sex more than 3 times a week

In question it says 8 pound lost i have now lost over 2 stone and weigh 15 stone 3 from 17 stone 12

The same question on 21 October answered by you. You said everything is normal and I can conceive naturally so why have you changed your mind?